In the footage, it sits consistently in the checked fixture and turns during gripping. So the crooked position isn't there at the start

Keep a copy of the current configuration and hold off on further coordinate changes. Under the appropriate isolation procedure, maintenance can use the observed rotation to focus inspection on tooling contact, mounting and tray seating.

The maintenance notes show contact pads were replaced before the first point adjustment. That's the first useful clue I've found in the history

That sounds like the pad replacement caused it. Check the installation against the specified arrangement.

The sequence makes pad installation worth investigating, but it doesn't establish causation. Fixture variation remains a possible contributor even with that maintenance history.

Agreed, I called it too early. Treat the replacement as a lead; verify installation and contact condition alongside tray location before assigning the cause.

I've settled the inspection route: preserve the settings, stop nudging points and have maintenance check the grip and seating. Any restart of trials depends on that assessment; I haven't pinned this on the arm

That answers the inspection-order question. Keeping the arm diagnosis open fits what your observation actually shows.